Breaking down the intangibles that can lead the Wolves to the NBA Finals

Of the four teams remaining in the NBA Playoffs the Oklahoma City Thunder won at least more games than any of them during the - regular season OKC was a chronic juggernaut If you divided the -game regular season into -game increments their worst stint was - twice They were - three times - twice and - once And they also won those final games and to finish - This is who the Minnesota Timberwolves will face in the Western Conference Finals a best-of-seven series that begins in OKC on Tuesday night When the playoffs began five weeks ago it would have been axiomatic to imagine the Thunder thumping the Wolves in four or five games by this stage in the proceedings But the postseason is a different beast than regular-season play The acculturation required to thrive in its crucible while retaining the core virtues of your identity is a crucial learning curve for any would-be NBA champion This is just one of the reasons why Wolves versus Thunder as of now feels like it will be much more competitive and unpredictable than originally anticipated Here are the dynamics that I believe are most of likely to shape the battleground states of play over these next four-to-seven games Can the Wolves weather the Thunder s lightning strikes The Thunder defense allowed fewer points per possessions this season than any other band in the NBA In this century only the - Chicago Bulls exhibited a greater dominance over everyone else in the league That s because the youthful but disciplined and athletic Thunder snatched so a large number of of those possessions away and transformed them into points of their own They led the NBA in turning over opponents per contest and points scored off those turnovers A dividend of this style of play is that points scored off turnovers are a relatively risk-free and efficient form of offense furthering the scoring disparity It follows then that the Thunder also committed the fewest turnovers per event and allowed opponents the fewest points off turnovers per event this season This style of play is at the root of the Thunder s identity Watch them enough times and you begin to anticipate the nearly-inevitable phase in the encounter where their quick-strike combination of on-ball pressure and opportunistic gap help runs roughshod over an opponent Then they capitalize on the chaos turning copious turnovers into transition buckets that savagely swing the momentum in their direction Look no further than Sunday s decisive Meeting trouncing of Denver where the Thunder reversed a double-digit first-quarter deficit into a secure halftime lead and then a blowout by the third quarter When it was over OKC s -point margin of achievement - came entirely from the whopping points they scored off Denver s turnovers compared to the mere seven they ceded off their own miscues The importance of dodging the lightning is further dramatized by the four regular season matchups between the Wolves and the Thunder Going - against an opponent who went - is no mean feat One considerable way it was accomplished was that the Wolves allowed just points per event from total turnovers in the games they won and points per challenge off the turnovers they committed in the two they lost Related from January After being outclassed by the Thunder Ant and the Wolves still searching for magic of last season Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle only played in the opening matchup on New Year s Eve and were injured for the three subsequent games in February In the battle they played the Wolves ceded points off turnovers and lost by eight The offense has become more versatile and more efficient since then but there are games when Gobert s hand-eye coordination and overall bodily rhythm fail him that coupled with his lack of speed to defend in transition makes the appearance of Good Rudy vital to Minnesota s chances Although he committed four turnovers compared to Gobert s one in that December tournament Randle has been a more consistent performer and decision-maker on offense since returning from injury in late February and is less of expected liability in terms of turnovers In fact going to Randle in the post is a good counter to the Thunder s perimeter chaos Advantage Thunder Reducing the stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the presumptive MVP of the league this season and Anthony Edwards has once again led his crew on a deep playoff run But both the Thunder and the Wolves have defensive personnel who are uniquely suited to reducing their effectiveness Lu Dort may be the toughest individual defender Ant faces on a regular basis He is one of the rare wing stoppers able to match or exceed Ant s strength and physicality which is a vastly underrated aspect of Ant s playmaking prowess without getting easily beaten off the dribble For that reason OKC apparently throws fewer double-teams at Ant than the bulk any other Wolves opponent And in the four games against OKC this season Ant had the worst three-point percentage and the lowest usage compared to any other Western Conference foe The Wolves play only twice against teams in the East skewing the stats with tiny sample sizes At first blush Gilgeous-Alexander dominated the Wolves this past regular season He averaged points per contest with a essential chunk of those points coming from the free throw line where he averaged attempts per challenge and was - overall But in their final meeting of the regular season the Wolves overcame a point deficit by meeting Gilgeous-Alexander with a wall of defenders as he crossed midcourt forcing him to pass early in the shot clock to his teammates Expect similar strategies designed to force the others to generate offense The Thunder are capable and disciplined in their schemes and sets but their efficiency is elevated by a propensity of open court points off turnovers It s no knock on Ant to say that Gilgeous-Alexander has been the better contestant this season But that gap narrows with Playoff Ant and narrows a little further given how much Ant has improved in terms of when and to whom he gets off the ball and repositions himself in the offense The maturation of Randle s role has been crucial to this Slight advantage Thunder Experience and rest The Wolves have arduously climbed the ladder of playoff experience from getting bounced in the first round two straight seasons to now a two straight trips to the conference finals Having swept Phoenix and then won a dramatic seventh contest against Denver last season they were overconfident and exhausted in a five-game defeat versus Dallas a valuable lesson Their veterans especially Mike Conley and Gobert have come close in the postseason often enough to become a source of inspiration for their teammates to get them a ring They are mentally primed and well rested having squelched both the Lakers and Warriors in five games Related from February Wolves rookies show veteran poise in comeback win versus Thunder By comparison the Thunder are new to this They lost in six to that same Dallas outfit last season and after sweeping Memphis in the first round this season were forced to go seven against the Nuggets in the second round It was a comeuppance to the youngest roster in the NBA at the start of the season average age and now they encounter the rested Wolves with just one day to recover Advantage Wolves Depth Minnesota and OKC boast two of the deepest playoff rotations in the NBA and this series could easily be decided by which bench unit rises to the occasion Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo DDV are coming off uneven performances against Golden State but are frequently catalysts on offense with specific skills on defense rebounding and rugged on-ball pressure for DDV shot-blocking and rapid recovery in transition for Naz that are well-suited for this matchup That goes double for Nickeil Alexander-Walker NAW who has seen his minutes drop in the first two postseason series but has been effective on Gilgeous-Alexander in the past and is due for an uptick after a reliable regular season If there is a ninth man Jaylen Clark was a decent option on Gilgeous-Alexander during the February games and would likely get the nod over TJ Shannon The Thunder have a pair of superb defenders in Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace Caruso s bravura defense on Nikola Jokic sparked the turnaround for OKC in Challenge adding to his reputation Wallace is underrated and already effective on both sides of the ball The others in order of playing time Aaron Wiggins Isaiah Joe and Jaylin Williams are firmly in the Thunder mold in that they know the system and how they fit into it Advantage even Momentum and cohesion This made-up category is meant to explain why I think the Wolves are going to spring the upset in this series Incredible as it is to write these words Minnesota has become a top-shelf organization President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly is not afraid to shake it up but is steadfast in his prioritizing character and willingness to sacrifice for the greater good when assembling the components for his roster Coach Chris Finch is the ideal enabler for that mentality He prioritizes creating synergy out of a dedication to both harmony and accountability a delicate dance to be sure but I have never seen a coach sweat the details of it so honestly or have the courage of those convictions pay off so dramatically For two seasons in a row the Timberwolves have blossomed in admirable fashion by emphasizing hard work open-mindedness self-sacrifice Teamwork is not a clich in that locker room The Rudy Gobert of Utah was vastly different than the Gobert of last year s Wolves who is different than the Gobert of this season He has arrayed his enormous pride around necessary patience dogged trust and the occasional indignity that helps his gang win He s all about winning Finch noted with affection He is all about his teammates too We ve struggled at times to maximize him offensively over his time here I think he has come to peace with that It is just how we are constructed He doesn t let it bother him still shows up There are games and there are nights we have talked about it where he just flat out won t let you lose And then stays individual But we ve preached to him since he got here that we are going to need him to do a variety of things We are going to be multidimensional That was unlike Utah He has been way more open-minded in coverages or just the type of things we know we have to do to have success in the playoffs And several of it is going to accentuate what he does and various of it may be not playing right into his hands But even when his minutes have come down a bit he s been nothing but all about the unit The renaissance of Julius Randle has made this unit more versatile at both ends of the court a flexibility that gives this company that extra boost into the realm of legitimate championship contenders It is a heart-warming evolution His happiness is palpable and still may not match the enthusiasm it has generated in his teammates the fans and watchers of NBA hoops in general The genuine affection in his voice when he speaks of Finch of Ant of Jaden McDaniels or largest part anybody really by itself explains how it came about But the honesty also is so refreshing Demanded about the defensive improvement that has galvanized this unit at that end he reported It has been my care factor Just like even growing up playing basketball I was on the offensive end so coaches were talking like they only longed me to play offense and not foul Understanding that there are more methods to impact the battle than just scoring the basketball Tools that I can use to my advantage on the offensive end my size my speed my quickness my feet my strength all that stuff So I can use those same tools defensively to be a versatile defender I appealed him what was the trip wire that suddenly made him say I can do this better if I just lean into it He replied that it began his last year with the Los Angeles Lakers guarding on the perimeter as a small-ball center It kind of gave me the confidence but not just fully realizing and utilizing it And then coming here and being surrounded by so several great defensive players two-way guys it just helped me buy in even more When you ve got guys like Rudy Ant Jaden Nickeil I mean like Mike everybody down the line whoever plays Naz When those guys put the effort in on the defensive end it is encouraging You don t want to be the weak link out there For me I take pride in it Each member of the starting eight has a compelling evolution story Randle s initial impact displaced the typical playmaking role for Conley short-circuited the way McDaniels was going to be used on offense ceded specific touches from Ant DDV was no longer starting alongside the Villanova alumni in New York he was coming off the bench Ditto Naz who had a claim to a starter s role based on his th Man of the Year award and the trading of Karl-Anthony Towns And NAW the eighth man on a bargaining expiring contract Each contestant had to swallow hard and adjust And to a man each one did Consequently the Wolves have that vibe They have a charismatic superstar who has become a dynamic three-point shooter and an inspirational association leader whose own self-sacrifice sets up the dominos for everyone s buy in They are deep and hungry and happy but not yet satisfied To beat the Thunder they need to keep the turnovers down and figure out methods to make others besides Gilgeous-Alexander beat them They need to exploit their advantages in rest and experience retain their increasingly impressive composure and confidence against a foe that will test it far more vigorously than either the Lakers or the Warriors could muster If they drop both games in OKC they will have punted this opportunity But if not Wolves in six The post Urgent down the intangibles that can lead the Wolves to the NBA Finals appeared first on MinnPost